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FC 08 Villingen vs Ilshofen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
CANC
14:30
Ilshofen
Ilshofen
3/13/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 23MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC 08 Villingen64%
×Draw18%
Ilshofen18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Villingen
2.54
Ilshofen
1.27

FC 08 Villingen creates 100% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen
2.25
Ilshofen
1.20

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen
1.34
Ilshofen
2.84

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par
Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

Ilshofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw
82%
FC 08 Villingen or Ilshofen
82%
Draw or Ilshofen
36%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
43%
Ilshofen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
92%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
72%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
46%
Ilshofen 1+ goals
72%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
36%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
78%
Ilshofen (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.54

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more
64%
level
18%
Ilshofen scores more
18%

FC 08 Villingen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC 08 Villingen host Ilshofen

March 13, 2021: FC 08 Villingen take on Ilshofen in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC 08 Villingen host Ilshofen at MS Technologie Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.