FC 08 Villingen 4–0 FC Rielasingen-Arlen

FC 08 Villingen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

M. Boulachab 57', 52'

T. Ceylan 42'

N. Tadic 5'

4/1/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 25MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC 08 Villingen57%

×Draw20%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC 08 VillingenExpected goals in this matchFC Rielasingen-Arlen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.30

FC 08 Villingen

2.19

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.30

FC 08 Villingen creates 68% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 42 away

2.25

creates per match

1.26

1.34

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen

2.25

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.26

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen

1.34

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw

78%

FC 08 Villingen or FC Rielasingen-Arlen

80%

Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen

43%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+

35%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals

89%

FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals

64%

FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals

37%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals

73%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals

37%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)

72%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.19

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more

57%

level

20%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more

22%

FC 08 Villingen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

N. Tadic

42'

T. Ceylan

52'

M. Boulachab

57'

M. Boulachab

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff