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FC 08 Villingen vs Bruchsal — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bruchsal
Bruchsal
6/4/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 38MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC 08 Villingen62%
×Draw18%
Bruchsal20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Villingen
2.56
Bruchsal
1.41

FC 08 Villingen creates 82% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen
2.25
Bruchsal
1.48

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen
1.34
Bruchsal
2.88

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par
Bruchsal+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

Bruchsal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw
80%
FC 08 Villingen or Bruchsal
82%
Draw or Bruchsal
38%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
41%
Bruchsal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
92%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
72%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
46%
Bruchsal 1+ goals
76%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
41%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
76%
Bruchsal (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

Bruchsal away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + Bruchsal defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.56

Bruchsal attack 1.48 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more
62%
level
18%
Bruchsal scores more
20%

FC 08 Villingen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC 08 Villingen 7–0 Bruchsal

FC 08 Villingen beat Bruchsal 7-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at MS Technologie Arena in Villingen-Schwenningen.