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FC 08 Villingen vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
CANC
13:00
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
5/16/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 36MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC 08 Villingen54%
×Draw21%
Astoria Walldorf II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Villingen
2.10
Astoria Walldorf II
1.35

FC 08 Villingen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen
2.25
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen
1.34
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw
76%
FC 08 Villingen or Astoria Walldorf II
79%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
46%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
33%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
88%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
62%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
35%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
74%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
39%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
69%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.10

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more
54%
level
21%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
24%

FC 08 Villingen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC 08 Villingen vs Astoria Walldorf II — Match Preview

FC 08 Villingen face Astoria Walldorf II on May 16, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC 08 Villingen host Astoria Walldorf II at MS Technologie Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.