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FC 08 Homburg vs Holstein Kiel — DFB Pokal 2018

FC 08 Homburg
FC 08 Homburg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
A. Bernhardsson 90'
J. Tolkin 24'
8/17/2025DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundWaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC 08 Homburg27%
×Draw21%
Holstein Kiel52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Homburg
1.52
Holstein Kiel
2.15

Holstein Kiel creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC 08 Homburg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
2.55

allows per match

FC 08 Homburg
1.75
Holstein Kiel
1.55

finishing

FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Homburg ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FC 08 Homburg or draw
48%
FC 08 Homburg or Holstein Kiel
79%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
73%

Winning margin

FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+
12%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals
78%
FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals
45%
FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals
20%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
88%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
63%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)
34%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Homburg at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Homburg attack 1.50 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Holstein Kiel attack 2.55 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC 08 Homburg scores more
27%
level
21%
Holstein Kiel scores more
52%

Holstein Kiel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47
J. TolkinHolstein KielHolstein Kiel · M
8.7

Match Events

24'
J. Tolkin↳ J. Therkelsen
27'
Magnus Knudsen
31'
Manuel Kober
67'
F. Porath← N. Niehoff
67'
S. Schwab← M. Knudsen
68'
J. Krumrey← T. Weiner
72'
N. Jorg← O. Kovacic
72'
A. Suljic← M. Gouras
83'
T. Steinmetz← T. Littmann
83'
J. Petermann← M. Goncalves
85'
A. Bernhardsson← S. Skrzybski
90+3'
Mart Ristl
90+6'
Carl Johansson
90+5'
Jonas Therkelsen
90+5'
K. Davidsen← J. Therkelsen
90'
A. Bernhardsson↳ S. Schwab

Possession

39%FC

Shots

13FC

Pass accuracy

46%FC

Statistics

FCHolstein
Overview
39%Possession61%
13Total Shots26
5Corners19
13Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots26
3On Target10
6Off Target8
4Blocked8
8Inside Box14
5Outside Box12
Passing
39%Possession61%
284Total Passes446
204Accurate Passes372
72%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Match Recap: FC 08 Homburg vs Holstein Kiel

Holstein Kiel beat FC 08 Homburg 2-0 in DFB Pokal on August 17, 2025.

Goals: J. Tolkin (24'), A. Bernhardsson (90').

Holstein Kiel controlled possession (61%) and registered 26 shots to 13.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Homburg.