Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC 08 Homburg vs FC St. Pauli — DFB Pokal 2018

FC 08 Homburg
FC 08 Homburg
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauliadvanced
12/5/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16Waldstadion Homburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC 08 Homburg34%
×Draw21%
FC St. Pauli45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Homburg
1.86
FC St. Pauli
2.16

FC St. Pauli creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC 08 Homburg
1.50
FC St. Pauli
2.56

allows per match

FC 08 Homburg
1.75
FC St. Pauli
2.22

finishing

FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Homburg ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

FC 08 Homburg or draw
55%
FC 08 Homburg or FC St. Pauli
79%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
66%

Winning margin

FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+
18%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals
84%
FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals
55%
FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals
28%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
88%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
63%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)
43%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Homburg at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 2.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Homburg attack 1.50 + FC St. Pauli defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.86

FC St. Pauli attack 2.56 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC 08 Homburg scores more
34%
level
21%
FC St. Pauli scores more
45%

FC St. Pauli at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: FC 08 Homburg 1–4 FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli beat FC 08 Homburg 4-1 in DFB Pokal on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstadion Homburg in Homburg.