FC 08 Homburg 6–0 Bahlinger SC: Result & Stats

FC 08 Homburg

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bahlinger SC

T. Steinmetz 83'

A. Suljic 77'

M. Gouras 72'

F. Schumann 55'

N. Jorg 44'

M. Mendler 6'

8/20/2025

League #86 · Südwest - 3Waldstadion Homburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC 08 Homburg48%

×Draw24%

Bahlinger SC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC 08 HomburgExpected goals in this matchBahlinger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.20

FC 08 Homburg

1.67

Bahlinger SC

1.20

FC 08 Homburg creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

1.45

creates per match

1.13

1.27

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

FC 08 Homburg

1.45

Bahlinger SC

1.13

allows per match

FC 08 Homburg

1.27

Bahlinger SC

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par

Bahlinger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Homburg ↓

Bahlinger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC 08 Homburg or draw

73%

FC 08 Homburg or Bahlinger SC

76%

Draw or Bahlinger SC

52%

Winning margin

FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+

26%

Bahlinger SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals

81%

FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals

50%

FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals

23%

Bahlinger SC 1+ goals

70%

Bahlinger SC 2+ goals

34%

Bahlinger SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)

64%

Bahlinger SC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Homburg at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Bahlinger SC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Homburg attack 1.45 + Bahlinger SC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bahlinger SC attack 1.13 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC 08 Homburg scores more

48%

level

24%

Bahlinger SC scores more

27%

FC 08 Homburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC 08 Homburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

44'

55'

72'

77'

83'

FC

Bahlinger

Manager: Roland Seitz

Manager: Stefan Reisinger