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FBK Karlstad vs Yxhult — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Yxhult
Yxhult
6/22/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 13Örsholmen IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FBK Karlstad60%
×Draw20%
Yxhult20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBK Karlstad
2.27
Yxhult
1.26

FBK Karlstad creates 80% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

creates per match

FBK Karlstad
2.46
Yxhult
1.60

allows per match

FBK Karlstad
0.92
Yxhult
2.08

finishing

FBK Karlstad+0.00on par
Yxhult+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBK Karlstad ↓

Yxhult →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FBK Karlstad or draw
80%
FBK Karlstad or Yxhult
80%
Draw or Yxhult
40%

Winning margin

FBK Karlstad wins by 2+
38%
Yxhult wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FBK Karlstad 1+ goals
90%
FBK Karlstad 2+ goals
66%
FBK Karlstad 3+ goals
39%
Yxhult 1+ goals
72%
Yxhult 2+ goals
36%
Yxhult 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)
75%
Yxhult (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBK Karlstad at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Yxhult away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBK Karlstad attack 2.46 + Yxhult defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.27

Yxhult attack 1.60 + FBK Karlstad defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FBK Karlstad scores more
60%
level
20%
Yxhult scores more
20%

FBK Karlstad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FBK Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FBK Karlstad vs Yxhult

FBK Karlstad beat Yxhult 5-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on June 22, 2023.

The match was played at Örsholmen IP in Karlstad.