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FBK Karlstad vs Tidaholms GoIF — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
9/20/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 22Örsholmens IP KDS Bilar Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FBK Karlstad72%
×Draw16%
Tidaholms GoIF11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBK Karlstad
2.50
Tidaholms GoIF
0.89

FBK Karlstad creates 181% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

FBK Karlstad
2.46
Tidaholms GoIF
0.85

allows per match

FBK Karlstad
0.92
Tidaholms GoIF
2.54

finishing

FBK Karlstad+0.00on par
Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBK Karlstad ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FBK Karlstad or draw
89%
FBK Karlstad or Tidaholms GoIF
84%
Draw or Tidaholms GoIF
28%

Winning margin

FBK Karlstad wins by 2+
50%
Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FBK Karlstad 1+ goals
92%
FBK Karlstad 2+ goals
71%
FBK Karlstad 3+ goals
45%
Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
59%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
22%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)
86%
Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBK Karlstad at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBK Karlstad attack 2.46 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.50

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + FBK Karlstad defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FBK Karlstad scores more
72%
level
16%
Tidaholms GoIF scores more
11%

FBK Karlstad at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FBK Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FBK Karlstad vs Tidaholms GoIF

FBK Karlstad beat Tidaholms GoIF 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Örsholmens IP KDS Bilar Arena in Karlstad.