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FBK Karlstad vs Sandviken — Svenska Cupen 2019

FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sandviken
Sandviken
8/21/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundÖrsholmens IP KDS Bilar Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FBK Karlstad16%
×Draw16%
Sandviken68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBK Karlstad
1.31
Sandviken
2.83

Sandviken creates 116% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

FBK Karlstad
1.25
Sandviken
2.15

allows per match

FBK Karlstad
3.50
Sandviken
1.38

finishing

FBK Karlstad+0.00on par
Sandviken+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBK Karlstad ↓

Sandviken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

FBK Karlstad or draw
32%
FBK Karlstad or Sandviken
84%
Draw or Sandviken
84%

Winning margin

FBK Karlstad wins by 2+
6%
Sandviken wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

FBK Karlstad 1+ goals
73%
FBK Karlstad 2+ goals
38%
FBK Karlstad 3+ goals
14%
Sandviken 1+ goals
94%
Sandviken 2+ goals
77%
Sandviken 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)
19%
Sandviken (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBK Karlstad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Sandviken away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBK Karlstad attack 1.25 + Sandviken defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sandviken attack 2.15 + FBK Karlstad defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FBK Karlstad scores more
16%
level
16%
Sandviken scores more
68%

Sandviken at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FBK Karlstad vs Sandviken

Sandviken beat FBK Karlstad 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Örsholmens IP KDS Bilar Arena in Karlstad.