FBK Karlstad 1–0 Säffle SK: Result & Stats

FBK Karlstad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Säffle SK

Unknown 62'

5/5/2023

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 6Örsholmens IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FBK Karlstad70%

×Draw18%

Säffle SK12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBK KarlstadExpected goals in this matchSäffle SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

0.86

FBK Karlstad

2.34

Säffle SK

0.86

FBK Karlstad creates 172% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

2.46

creates per match

0.81

0.92

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

FBK Karlstad

2.46

Säffle SK

0.81

allows per match

FBK Karlstad

0.92

Säffle SK

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FBK Karlstad+0.00on par

Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBK Karlstad ↓

Säffle SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FBK Karlstad or draw

88%

FBK Karlstad or Säffle SK

82%

Draw or Säffle SK

30%

Winning margin

FBK Karlstad wins by 2+

47%

Säffle SK wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FBK Karlstad 1+ goals

90%

FBK Karlstad 2+ goals

67%

FBK Karlstad 3+ goals

41%

Säffle SK 1+ goals

58%

Säffle SK 2+ goals

21%

Säffle SK 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)

85%

Säffle SK (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBK Karlstad at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBK Karlstad attack 2.46 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.34

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + FBK Karlstad defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FBK Karlstad scores more

70%

level

18%

Säffle SK scores more

12%

FBK Karlstad at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FBK Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff