FBK Karlstad 1–2 Örebro Syrianska: Result & Stats

FBK Karlstad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Örebro Syrianska

L. Nåvik 48'

E. Chabo 73'

A. Ajdarevic 23'

11/1/2024

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 29Sola Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FBK Karlstad36%

×Draw23%

Örebro Syrianska41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBK KarlstadExpected goals in this matchÖrebro Syrianska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.74

FBK Karlstad

1.63

Örebro Syrianska

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 90 away

1.27

creates per match

1.40

2.09

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

FBK Karlstad

1.27

Örebro Syrianska

1.40

allows per match

FBK Karlstad

2.09

Örebro Syrianska

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FBK Karlstad+0.00on par

Örebro Syrianska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBK Karlstad ↓

Örebro Syrianska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FBK Karlstad or draw

59%

FBK Karlstad or Örebro Syrianska

77%

Draw or Örebro Syrianska

64%

Winning margin

FBK Karlstad wins by 2+

18%

Örebro Syrianska wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FBK Karlstad 1+ goals

80%

FBK Karlstad 2+ goals

48%

FBK Karlstad 3+ goals

22%

Örebro Syrianska 1+ goals

82%

Örebro Syrianska 2+ goals

52%

Örebro Syrianska 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)

47%

Örebro Syrianska (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBK Karlstad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 22 matches

Örebro Syrianska away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBK Karlstad attack 1.27 + Örebro Syrianska defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.63

Örebro Syrianska attack 1.40 + FBK Karlstad defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FBK Karlstad scores more

36%

level

23%

Örebro Syrianska scores more

41%

Örebro Syrianska at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Örebro Syrianska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Ajdarevic

26'

A. Dzevlan

48'

63'

66'

73'

75'

75'

79'

80'

83'

86'

O. Nilsson← J. Gustavsson

87'

I. Spanedal← M. van den Bos

89'

O. Kåhed← S. Tatolna

89'

T. Rafael← E. Chabo

90+3'

L. Navik

FBK

Örebro

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Moberg

75'▲C. Nyman←▼E. Portén

79'▲A. Fathi←▼A. Beqiri

86'▲O. Nilsson←▼J. Gustavsson

89'▲O. Kåhed←▼S. Tatolna

FBK Karlstad substitutes

NymanFathiNilssonKåhedHallstenssonRolandssonNielsen

Manager: B. Çiçek

66'▲P. Malky←▼I. Habib

80'▲M. Saleh←▼S. Conta

87'▲I. Spanedal←▼M. van den Bos

89'▲T. Rafael←▼E. Chabo

Örebro Syrianska substitutes

MalkySalehSpanedalRafaelHertzmanSerranoAfshari