FBC Melgar W vs Sporting Cristal W

FBC Melgar W

Preview

19:00

Sporting Cristal W

7/24/2026

Liga Women · Clausura - 1

42%

FBC Melgar W

model favours

42%26%32%

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FBC Melgar W42%

×Draw26%

Sporting Cristal W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC Melgar WExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.25

FBC Melgar W

1.47

Sporting Cristal W

1.25

FBC Melgar W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.60

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FBC Melgar W

1.60

Sporting Cristal W

1.50

allows per match

FBC Melgar W

1.00

Sporting Cristal W

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FBC Melgar W+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar W ↓

Sporting Cristal W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FBC Melgar W or draw

68%

FBC Melgar W or Sporting Cristal W

74%

Draw or Sporting Cristal W

58%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar W wins by 2+

20%

Sporting Cristal W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FBC Melgar W 1+ goals

77%

FBC Melgar W 2+ goals

43%

FBC Melgar W 3+ goals

18%

Sporting Cristal W 1+ goals

71%

Sporting Cristal W 2+ goals

36%

Sporting Cristal W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar W (draw refunded)

57%

Sporting Cristal W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Sporting Cristal W away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar W attack 1.60 + Sporting Cristal W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sporting Cristal W attack 1.50 + FBC Melgar W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FBC Melgar W scores more

42%

level

26%

Sporting Cristal W scores more

32%

FBC Melgar W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FBC Melgar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

LDDLW

W

DDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff