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FBC Melgar W vs Atl. Andahuaylas W — Liga Women 2026

FBC Melgar W
FBC Melgar W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atl. Andahuaylas W
Atl. Andahuaylas W
5/25/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 9Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FBC Melgar W50%
×Draw26%
Atl. Andahuaylas W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar W
1.55
Atl. Andahuaylas W
1.00

FBC Melgar W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar W
1.60
Atl. Andahuaylas W
1.00

allows per match

FBC Melgar W
1.00
Atl. Andahuaylas W
1.50

finishing

FBC Melgar W+0.00on par
Atl. Andahuaylas W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar W ↓

Atl. Andahuaylas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FBC Melgar W or draw
76%
FBC Melgar W or Atl. Andahuaylas W
74%
Draw or Atl. Andahuaylas W
50%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar W wins by 2+
26%
Atl. Andahuaylas W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FBC Melgar W 1+ goals
79%
FBC Melgar W 2+ goals
46%
FBC Melgar W 3+ goals
20%
Atl. Andahuaylas W 1+ goals
63%
Atl. Andahuaylas W 2+ goals
26%
Atl. Andahuaylas W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar W (draw refunded)
67%
Atl. Andahuaylas W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Atl. Andahuaylas W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar W attack 1.60 + Atl. Andahuaylas W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atl. Andahuaylas W attack 1.00 + FBC Melgar W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FBC Melgar W scores more
50%
level
26%
Atl. Andahuaylas W scores more
24%

FBC Melgar W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FBC Melgar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Women: FBC Melgar W 1–2 Atl. Andahuaylas W

Atl. Andahuaylas W beat FBC Melgar W 2-1 in Liga Women on May 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi in Arequipa.