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FBC Melgar W vs Alianza Lima W — Liga Women 2026

FBC Melgar W
FBC Melgar W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Lima W
Alianza Lima W
6/12/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FBC Melgar W45%
×Draw28%
Alianza Lima W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar W
1.30
Alianza Lima W
0.92

FBC Melgar W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar W
1.60
Alianza Lima W
0.83

allows per match

FBC Melgar W
1.00
Alianza Lima W
1.00

finishing

FBC Melgar W+0.00on par
Alianza Lima W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar W ↓

Alianza Lima W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FBC Melgar W or draw
74%
FBC Melgar W or Alianza Lima W
72%
Draw or Alianza Lima W
55%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar W wins by 2+
21%
Alianza Lima W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FBC Melgar W 1+ goals
73%
FBC Melgar W 2+ goals
37%
FBC Melgar W 3+ goals
14%
Alianza Lima W 1+ goals
60%
Alianza Lima W 2+ goals
23%
Alianza Lima W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar W (draw refunded)
63%
Alianza Lima W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Alianza Lima W away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar W attack 1.60 + Alianza Lima W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alianza Lima W attack 0.83 + FBC Melgar W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FBC Melgar W scores more
45%
level
28%
Alianza Lima W scores more
26%

FBC Melgar W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FBC Melgar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Women: FBC Melgar W 0–0 Alianza Lima W

FBC Melgar W and Alianza Lima W drew 0-0 in Liga Women on June 12, 2026.