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FBC Melgar vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2026

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
9/24/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 15Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

FBC Melgar62%
×Draw22%
Union Comercio16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.90
Union Comercio
0.84

FBC Melgar creates 126% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 74 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.82
Union Comercio
0.81

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.88
Union Comercio
1.97

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
84%
FBC Melgar or Union Comercio
78%
Draw or Union Comercio
38%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
37%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
85%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
56%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
29%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
57%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
21%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
80%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
62%
level
22%
Union Comercio scores more
16%

FBC Melgar at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FBC Melgar 3 – 1 Union Comercio

FBC Melgar beat Union Comercio 3-1 in Primera División on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín in Arequipa.