FBC Melgar vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — Primera División 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
FBC Melgar57%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas21%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FBC Melgar creates 79% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FBC Melgar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FBC Melgar attack 1.78 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.90
Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.92 + FBC Melgar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
FBC Melgar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FBC Melgar substitutes
UniversitarioFBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal
ADT
Sport Huancayo
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cesar Vallejo
Cienciano
Sport Boys
Carlos A. Mannucci
UTC
Cusco
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Binacional
Union Comercio
Academia Cantolao
Alianza Atletico
Deportivo MunicipalAlianza LimaSporting CristalUniversitarioCuscoSport HuancayoCesar VallejoCarlos A. MannucciDeportivo GarcilasoFBC MelgarDeportivo MunicipalCiencianoAtletico GrauAlianza AtleticoADTUTCUnion ComercioDeportivo BinacionalSport BoysAcademia CantolaoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FBC Melgar host Club Deportivo Los Chankas on Sunday, 15 September 2024 at 20:15. The match is part of the Primera División 2020/2021 season.
FBC Melgar 2 – 0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FBC Melgar beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-0 in Primera División on September 15, 2024.
Goals: K. Becerra (20' o.g.), K. Cabrera (61').
FBC Melgar controlled possession (58%) and registered 23 shots to 10.
The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín in Arequipa.