FBC Melgar 0–2 Carlos Stein: Result & Stats

FBC Melgar

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Carlos Stein

8/27/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FBC Melgar60%

×Draw22%

Carlos Stein18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC MelgarExpected goals in this matchCarlos Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.90

FBC Melgar

1.86

Carlos Stein

0.90

FBC Melgar creates 107% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 32 away

1.82

creates per match

0.91

0.88

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

FBC Melgar

1.82

Carlos Stein

0.91

allows per match

FBC Melgar

0.88

Carlos Stein

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Carlos Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw

82%

FBC Melgar or Carlos Stein

78%

Draw or Carlos Stein

40%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

35%

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

84%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

55%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

28%

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

59%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

23%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

77%

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FBC Melgar scores more

60%

level

22%

Carlos Stein scores more

18%

FBC Melgar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff