Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fayzkand vs Khujand — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Fayzkand
Fayzkand
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khujand
Khujand
4/16/2022Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Fayzkand32%
×Draw26%
Khujand42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fayzkand
1.23
Khujand
1.44

Khujand creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 97 away

creates per match

Fayzkand
1.11
Khujand
1.31

allows per match

Fayzkand
1.57
Khujand
1.34

finishing

Fayzkand+0.00on par
Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fayzkand ↓

Khujand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fayzkand or draw
58%
Fayzkand or Khujand
74%
Draw or Khujand
68%

Winning margin

Fayzkand wins by 2+
14%
Khujand wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fayzkand 1+ goals
71%
Fayzkand 2+ goals
35%
Fayzkand 3+ goals
13%
Khujand 1+ goals
76%
Khujand 2+ goals
42%
Khujand 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Fayzkand (draw refunded)
43%
Khujand (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fayzkand at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fayzkand attack 1.11 + Khujand defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Khujand attack 1.31 + Fayzkand defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fayzkand scores more
32%
level
26%
Khujand scores more
42%

Khujand at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Fayzkand 0–0 Khujand

Fayzkand and Khujand drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Gissar.