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Fayzkand vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Fayzkand
Fayzkand
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
8/19/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 18Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Fayzkand37%
×Draw26%
Khosilot Farkhor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fayzkand
1.33
Khosilot Farkhor
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fayzkand
1.11
Khosilot Farkhor
1.04

allows per match

Fayzkand
1.57
Khosilot Farkhor
1.55

finishing

Fayzkand+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fayzkand ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fayzkand or draw
64%
Fayzkand or Khosilot Farkhor
74%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
63%

Winning margin

Fayzkand wins by 2+
17%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fayzkand 1+ goals
74%
Fayzkand 2+ goals
38%
Fayzkand 3+ goals
15%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
73%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
38%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fayzkand (draw refunded)
51%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fayzkand at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fayzkand attack 1.11 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.04 + Fayzkand defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fayzkand scores more
37%
level
26%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
36%

Fayzkand at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fayzkand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Fayzkand 0–0 Khosilot Farkhor

Fayzkand and Khosilot Farkhor drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Rudaki.