Favoritner AC 3–3 Post: Result & Stats

Favoritner AC

FT

3 – 3

Post

4/3/2022

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 20Sportplatz Kaiserebersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Favoritner AC58%

×Draw19%

Post23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Favoritner ACExpected goals in this matchPost

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.54

Favoritner AC

2.49

Post

1.54

Favoritner AC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 43 away

2.19

creates per match

1.12

1.95

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Favoritner AC

2.19

Post

1.12

allows per match

Favoritner AC

1.95

Post

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Post+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Favoritner AC ↓

Post →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Favoritner AC or draw

77%

Favoritner AC or Post

81%

Draw or Post

42%

Winning margin

Favoritner AC wins by 2+

37%

Post wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Favoritner AC 1+ goals

92%

Favoritner AC 2+ goals

71%

Favoritner AC 3+ goals

45%

Post 1+ goals

79%

Post 2+ goals

45%

Post 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)

71%

Post (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Favoritner AC at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.95 · 43 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Favoritner AC attack 2.19 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.49

Post attack 1.12 + Favoritner AC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Favoritner AC scores more

58%

level

19%

Post scores more

23%

Favoritner AC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff