Favoritner AC 1–3 Neusiedl: Result & Stats

Favoritner AC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Neusiedl

3/1/2024

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 17FavAC - Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Favoritner AC42%

×Draw24%

Neusiedl34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Favoritner ACExpected goals in this matchNeusiedl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.46

Favoritner AC

1.64

Neusiedl

1.46

Favoritner AC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 104 away

1.43

creates per match

1.38

1.54

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Favoritner AC

1.43

Neusiedl

1.38

allows per match

Favoritner AC

1.54

Neusiedl

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Neusiedl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Favoritner AC ↓

Neusiedl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Favoritner AC or draw

66%

Favoritner AC or Neusiedl

76%

Draw or Neusiedl

58%

Winning margin

Favoritner AC wins by 2+

21%

Neusiedl wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Favoritner AC 1+ goals

81%

Favoritner AC 2+ goals

49%

Favoritner AC 3+ goals

23%

Neusiedl 1+ goals

77%

Neusiedl 2+ goals

43%

Neusiedl 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)

55%

Neusiedl (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Favoritner AC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 46 matches

Neusiedl away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.84 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Favoritner AC attack 1.43 + Neusiedl defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Neusiedl attack 1.38 + Favoritner AC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Favoritner AC scores more

42%

level

24%

Neusiedl scores more

34%

Favoritner AC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff