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Favoritner AC vs Krems — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krems
Krems
3/22/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 20FavAC - Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Favoritner AC41%
×Draw25%
Krems35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Favoritner AC
1.54
Krems
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 32 away

creates per match

Favoritner AC
1.43
Krems
1.28

allows per match

Favoritner AC
1.54
Krems
1.66

finishing

Favoritner AC+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Favoritner AC ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Favoritner AC or draw
65%
Favoritner AC or Krems
75%
Draw or Krems
59%

Winning margin

Favoritner AC wins by 2+
20%
Krems wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Favoritner AC 1+ goals
79%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
45%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
20%
Krems 1+ goals
76%
Krems 2+ goals
41%
Krems 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
54%
Krems (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Favoritner AC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 46 matches

Krems away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Favoritner AC attack 1.43 + Krems defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Krems attack 1.28 + Favoritner AC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Favoritner AC scores more
41%
level
25%
Krems scores more
35%

Favoritner AC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Favoritner AC 1–0 Krems

Favoritner AC beat Krems 1-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at FavAC - Platz in Wien.