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Favoritner AC vs Gloggnitz — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
10/5/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 10FavAC - Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Favoritner AC41%
×Draw23%
Gloggnitz36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Favoritner AC
1.77
Gloggnitz
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

creates per match

Favoritner AC
1.43
Gloggnitz
1.74

allows per match

Favoritner AC
1.54
Gloggnitz
2.10

finishing

Favoritner AC+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Favoritner AC ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Favoritner AC or draw
64%
Favoritner AC or Gloggnitz
77%
Draw or Gloggnitz
59%

Winning margin

Favoritner AC wins by 2+
22%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Favoritner AC 1+ goals
83%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
53%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
26%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
81%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
49%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
53%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Favoritner AC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 46 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Favoritner AC attack 1.43 + Gloggnitz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gloggnitz attack 1.74 + Favoritner AC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Favoritner AC scores more
41%
level
23%
Gloggnitz scores more
36%

Favoritner AC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Favoritner AC 2–1 Gloggnitz

Favoritner AC beat Gloggnitz 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at FavAC - Platz in Wien.