Fauve Azur Elite 1–0 Colombe: Result & Stats

Fauve Azur Elite

FT

1 – 0

Colombe

6/15/2025

Elite One · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fauve Azur Elite40%

×Draw30%

Colombe30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fauve Azur EliteExpected goals in this matchColombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.95

Fauve Azur Elite

1.13

Colombe

0.95

Fauve Azur Elite creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

1.33

creates per match

1.18

0.73

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Fauve Azur Elite

1.33

Colombe

1.18

allows per match

Fauve Azur Elite

0.73

Colombe

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Colombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fauve Azur Elite ↓

Colombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fauve Azur Elite or draw

70%

Fauve Azur Elite or Colombe

70%

Draw or Colombe

60%

Winning margin

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+

16%

Colombe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals

68%

Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals

31%

Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals

11%

Colombe 1+ goals

61%

Colombe 2+ goals

25%

Colombe 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)

57%

Colombe (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fauve Azur Elite at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Colombe away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fauve Azur Elite attack 1.33 + Colombe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Colombe attack 1.18 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fauve Azur Elite scores more

40%

level

30%

Colombe scores more

30%

Fauve Azur Elite at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fauve Azur Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff