Fauve Azur Elite 3–0 Bamboutos: Result & Stats

Fauve Azur Elite

FT

3 – 0

Bamboutos

4/20/2025

Elite One · Round 20Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fauve Azur Elite42%

×Draw30%

Bamboutos28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fauve Azur EliteExpected goals in this matchBamboutos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.91

Fauve Azur Elite

1.19

Bamboutos

0.91

Fauve Azur Elite creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

1.33

creates per match

1.08

0.73

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Fauve Azur Elite

1.33

Bamboutos

1.08

allows per match

Fauve Azur Elite

0.73

Bamboutos

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Bamboutos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fauve Azur Elite ↓

Bamboutos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fauve Azur Elite or draw

72%

Fauve Azur Elite or Bamboutos

70%

Draw or Bamboutos

58%

Winning margin

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+

18%

Bamboutos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals

70%

Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals

33%

Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals

12%

Bamboutos 1+ goals

60%

Bamboutos 2+ goals

23%

Bamboutos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)

60%

Bamboutos (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fauve Azur Elite at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Bamboutos away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fauve Azur Elite attack 1.33 + Bamboutos defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bamboutos attack 1.08 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fauve Azur Elite scores more

42%

level

30%

Bamboutos scores more

28%

Fauve Azur Elite at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fauve Azur Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff