Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Faulkland vs Waterhouse — Premier League 2019

Faulkland
Faulkland
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Waterhouse
Waterhouse
4/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Catherine Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Faulkland21%
×Draw24%
Waterhouse55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faulkland
0.98
Waterhouse
1.72

Waterhouse creates 76% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 99 away

creates per match

Faulkland
1.08
Waterhouse
1.35

allows per match

Faulkland
2.08
Waterhouse
0.87

finishing

Faulkland+0.00on par
Waterhouse+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faulkland ↓

Waterhouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Faulkland or draw
45%
Faulkland or Waterhouse
76%
Draw or Waterhouse
79%

Winning margin

Faulkland wins by 2+
7%
Waterhouse wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Faulkland 1+ goals
62%
Faulkland 2+ goals
26%
Faulkland 3+ goals
8%
Waterhouse 1+ goals
82%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
51%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Faulkland (draw refunded)
28%
Waterhouse (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faulkland at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Waterhouse away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faulkland attack 1.08 + Waterhouse defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Waterhouse attack 1.35 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Faulkland scores more
21%
level
24%
Waterhouse scores more
55%

Waterhouse at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Faulkland vs Waterhouse

Waterhouse beat Faulkland 3-2 in Premier League on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at Catherine Hall Sports Complex in Montego Bay.