Faulkland 0–1 Vere United: Result & Stats

Faulkland

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vere United

1/29/2023

Premier League · Round 12WespoW Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Faulkland37%

×Draw25%

Vere United38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FaulklandExpected goals in this matchVere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.41

Faulkland

1.38

Vere United

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 76 away

1.08

creates per match

0.74

2.08

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Faulkland

1.08

Vere United

0.74

allows per match

Faulkland

2.08

Vere United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Faulkland+0.00on par

Vere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faulkland ↓

Vere United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Faulkland or draw

62%

Faulkland or Vere United

75%

Draw or Vere United

63%

Winning margin

Faulkland wins by 2+

17%

Vere United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Faulkland 1+ goals

75%

Faulkland 2+ goals

40%

Faulkland 3+ goals

16%

Vere United 1+ goals

76%

Vere United 2+ goals

41%

Vere United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Faulkland (draw refunded)

49%

Vere United (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faulkland at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Vere United away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faulkland attack 1.08 + Vere United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vere United attack 0.74 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Faulkland scores more

37%

level

25%

Vere United scores more

38%

Vere United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff