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Faulkland vs Tivoli Gardens — Premier League 2019

Faulkland
Faulkland
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
11/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5WespoW Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Faulkland29%
×Draw24%
Tivoli Gardens47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faulkland
1.26
Tivoli Gardens
1.66

Tivoli Gardens creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 100 away

creates per match

Faulkland
1.08
Tivoli Gardens
1.24

allows per match

Faulkland
2.08
Tivoli Gardens
1.44

finishing

Faulkland+0.00on par
Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faulkland ↓

Tivoli Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Faulkland or draw
53%
Faulkland or Tivoli Gardens
76%
Draw or Tivoli Gardens
71%

Winning margin

Faulkland wins by 2+
12%
Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Faulkland 1+ goals
72%
Faulkland 2+ goals
36%
Faulkland 3+ goals
13%
Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
81%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
49%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Faulkland (draw refunded)
38%
Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faulkland at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faulkland attack 1.08 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Faulkland scores more
29%
level
24%
Tivoli Gardens scores more
47%

Tivoli Gardens at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Faulkland vs Tivoli Gardens

Faulkland and Tivoli Gardens drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at WespoW Park in Montego Bay.