Faulkland 0–0 Mount Pleasant Academy

Faulkland

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mount Pleasant Academy

2/12/2023

Premier League · Round 14WespoW Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Faulkland19%

×Draw22%

Mount Pleasant Academy59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FaulklandExpected goals in this matchMount Pleasant Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.88

Faulkland

0.96

Mount Pleasant Academy

1.88

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 96% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 103 away

1.08

creates per match

1.68

2.08

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Faulkland

1.08

Mount Pleasant Academy

1.68

allows per match

Faulkland

2.08

Mount Pleasant Academy

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Faulkland+0.00on par

Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faulkland ↓

Mount Pleasant Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Faulkland or draw

41%

Faulkland or Mount Pleasant Academy

78%

Draw or Mount Pleasant Academy

81%

Winning margin

Faulkland wins by 2+

6%

Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Faulkland 1+ goals

62%

Faulkland 2+ goals

25%

Faulkland 3+ goals

7%

Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals

85%

Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals

56%

Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Faulkland (draw refunded)

24%

Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faulkland at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Mount Pleasant Academy away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faulkland attack 1.08 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.68 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Faulkland scores more

19%

level

22%

Mount Pleasant Academy scores more

59%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff