Faulkland 0–2 Dunbeholden: Result & Stats

Faulkland

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dunbeholden

10/30/2022

Premier League · Round 2WespoW Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Faulkland30%

×Draw25%

Dunbeholden45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FaulklandExpected goals in this matchDunbeholden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.55

Faulkland

1.23

Dunbeholden

1.55

Dunbeholden creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 101 away

1.08

creates per match

1.02

2.08

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Faulkland

1.08

Dunbeholden

1.02

allows per match

Faulkland

2.08

Dunbeholden

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Faulkland+0.00on par

Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faulkland ↓

Dunbeholden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Faulkland or draw

55%

Faulkland or Dunbeholden

75%

Draw or Dunbeholden

70%

Winning margin

Faulkland wins by 2+

13%

Dunbeholden wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Faulkland 1+ goals

71%

Faulkland 2+ goals

35%

Faulkland 3+ goals

13%

Dunbeholden 1+ goals

79%

Dunbeholden 2+ goals

46%

Dunbeholden 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Faulkland (draw refunded)

40%

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faulkland at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faulkland attack 1.08 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Faulkland scores more

30%

level

25%

Dunbeholden scores more

45%

Dunbeholden at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunbeholden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff