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Faulkland vs Cavalier — Premier League 2019

Faulkland
Faulkland
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cavalier
Cavalier
3/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Faulkland22%
×Draw24%
Cavalier55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faulkland
1.01
Cavalier
1.75

Cavalier creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 106 away

creates per match

Faulkland
1.08
Cavalier
1.43

allows per match

Faulkland
2.08
Cavalier
0.93

finishing

Faulkland+0.00on par
Cavalier+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faulkland ↓

Cavalier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Faulkland or draw
45%
Faulkland or Cavalier
76%
Draw or Cavalier
78%

Winning margin

Faulkland wins by 2+
8%
Cavalier wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Faulkland 1+ goals
64%
Faulkland 2+ goals
27%
Faulkland 3+ goals
8%
Cavalier 1+ goals
83%
Cavalier 2+ goals
52%
Cavalier 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Faulkland (draw refunded)
28%
Cavalier (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faulkland at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Cavalier away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faulkland attack 1.08 + Cavalier defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Cavalier attack 1.43 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Faulkland scores more
22%
level
24%
Cavalier scores more
55%

Cavalier at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Faulkland 2–2 Cavalier

Faulkland and Cavalier drew 2-2 in Premier League on March 21, 2023.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.