Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fatsa Belediyespor vs Yomraspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fatsa Belediyespor
Fatsa Belediyespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Yomraspor
Yomraspor
10/14/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundFatsa İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fatsa Belediyespor22%
×Draw25%
Yomraspor53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatsa Belediyespor
0.94
Yomraspor
1.63

Yomraspor creates 73% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fatsa Belediyespor
0.50
Yomraspor
1.00

allows per match

Fatsa Belediyespor
2.25
Yomraspor
1.38

finishing

Fatsa Belediyespor+0.00on par
Yomraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatsa Belediyespor ↓

Yomraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fatsa Belediyespor or draw
47%
Fatsa Belediyespor or Yomraspor
75%
Draw or Yomraspor
78%

Winning margin

Fatsa Belediyespor wins by 2+
7%
Yomraspor wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Fatsa Belediyespor 1+ goals
61%
Fatsa Belediyespor 2+ goals
24%
Fatsa Belediyespor 3+ goals
7%
Yomraspor 1+ goals
80%
Yomraspor 2+ goals
48%
Yomraspor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Fatsa Belediyespor (draw refunded)
29%
Yomraspor (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatsa Belediyespor at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Yomraspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatsa Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Yomraspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.94

Yomraspor attack 1.00 + Fatsa Belediyespor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fatsa Belediyespor scores more
22%
level
25%
Yomraspor scores more
53%

Yomraspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yomraspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Fatsa Belediyespor 1–2 Yomraspor

Yomraspor beat Fatsa Belediyespor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Fatsa İlçe Stadyumu in Fatsa.