Fatsa Belediyespor 3–3 Vanspor FK: Result & Stats

Fatsa Belediyespor

Pens

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Vanspor FK

M. S. Sipahiler 69'

S. Altunkaynak 56'

E. Kulbak 26'

B. Kor 75', 62'

M. Manis 49'

10/28/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fatsa Belediyespor47%

×Draw23%

Vanspor FK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatsa BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchVanspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.41

Fatsa Belediyespor

1.82

Vanspor FK

1.41

Fatsa Belediyespor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

0.57

2.25

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Fatsa Belediyespor

0.50

Vanspor FK

0.57

allows per match

Fatsa Belediyespor

2.25

Vanspor FK

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatsa Belediyespor+0.00on par

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatsa Belediyespor ↓

Vanspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fatsa Belediyespor or draw

70%

Fatsa Belediyespor or Vanspor FK

77%

Draw or Vanspor FK

53%

Winning margin

Fatsa Belediyespor wins by 2+

26%

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fatsa Belediyespor 1+ goals

84%

Fatsa Belediyespor 2+ goals

54%

Fatsa Belediyespor 3+ goals

27%

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

76%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

41%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Fatsa Belediyespor (draw refunded)

61%

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatsa Belediyespor at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatsa Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Vanspor FK defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Vanspor FK attack 0.57 + Fatsa Belediyespor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fatsa Belediyespor scores more

47%

level

23%

Vanspor FK scores more

30%

Fatsa Belediyespor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fatsa Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

49'

56'

62'

69'

75'

Fatsa

Vanspor

Manager: Hakan Çobanoğlu

Manager: Hakan Kutlu