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Fatsa Belediyespor vs Samsunspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fatsa Belediyespor
Fatsa Belediyespor
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Samsunspor
Samsunspor
9/25/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundFatsa İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fatsa Belediyespor15%
×Draw20%
Samsunspor65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatsa Belediyespor
0.92
Samsunspor
2.13

Samsunspor creates 132% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fatsa Belediyespor
0.50
Samsunspor
2.00

allows per match

Fatsa Belediyespor
2.25
Samsunspor
1.33

finishing

Fatsa Belediyespor+0.00on par
Samsunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatsa Belediyespor ↓

Samsunspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fatsa Belediyespor or draw
35%
Fatsa Belediyespor or Samsunspor
80%
Draw or Samsunspor
85%

Winning margin

Fatsa Belediyespor wins by 2+
5%
Samsunspor wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Fatsa Belediyespor 1+ goals
60%
Fatsa Belediyespor 2+ goals
23%
Fatsa Belediyespor 3+ goals
7%
Samsunspor 1+ goals
88%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
63%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Fatsa Belediyespor (draw refunded)
19%
Samsunspor (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatsa Belediyespor at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatsa Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Samsunspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Samsunspor attack 2.00 + Fatsa Belediyespor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fatsa Belediyespor scores more
15%
level
20%
Samsunspor scores more
65%

Samsunspor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fatsa Belediyespor vs Samsunspor

Samsunspor beat Fatsa Belediyespor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Fatsa İlçe Stadyumu in Fatsa.