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Fatsa Belediyespor vs Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fatsa Belediyespor
Fatsa Belediyespor
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
9/29/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundFatsa İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fatsa Belediyespor24%
×Draw24%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatsa Belediyespor
1.06
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
1.69

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı creates 59% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fatsa Belediyespor
0.50
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
1.13

allows per match

Fatsa Belediyespor
2.25
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
1.63

finishing

Fatsa Belediyespor+0.00on par
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatsa Belediyespor ↓

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fatsa Belediyespor or draw
48%
Fatsa Belediyespor or Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
76%
Draw or Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
76%

Winning margin

Fatsa Belediyespor wins by 2+
9%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Fatsa Belediyespor 1+ goals
65%
Fatsa Belediyespor 2+ goals
29%
Fatsa Belediyespor 3+ goals
9%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1+ goals
82%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 2+ goals
50%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Fatsa Belediyespor (draw refunded)
31%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatsa Belediyespor at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatsa Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı attack 1.13 + Fatsa Belediyespor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fatsa Belediyespor scores more
24%
level
24%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı scores more
52%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fatsa Belediyespor vs Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

Fatsa Belediyespor and Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Fatsa İlçe Stadyumu in Fatsa.