Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yeni Malatyaspor

2/5/2022

League #203 · Round 24Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük61%

×Draw24%

Yeni Malatyaspor15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.67

Fatih Karagümrük

1.67

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.67

Fatih Karagümrük creates 149% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.67

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.33

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.00

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

85%

Fatih Karagümrük or Yeni Malatyaspor

76%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

39%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

34%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

81%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

50%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

23%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

49%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

15%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

81%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.67 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.33 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

61%

level

24%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

15%

Fatih Karagümrük at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff