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Fatih Karagümrük vs Uşak Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Uşak Spor
Uşak Spor
C. Kazim-Richards 84'
E. Colley 71'
J. Kouassi 14'
12/21/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundEsenler Erokspor Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük74%
×Draw16%
Uşak Spor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatih Karagümrük
2.44
Uşak Spor
0.77

Fatih Karagümrük creates 217% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.89
Uşak Spor
0.33

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.21
Uşak Spor
3.00

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par
Uşak Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Uşak Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw
90%
Fatih Karagümrük or Uşak Spor
84%
Draw or Uşak Spor
26%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
51%
Uşak Spor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
91%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
70%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
43%
Uşak Spor 1+ goals
54%
Uşak Spor 2+ goals
18%
Uşak Spor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
88%
Uşak Spor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Uşak Spor away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Uşak Spor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Uşak Spor attack 0.33 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more
74%
level
16%
Uşak Spor scores more
10%

Fatih Karagümrük at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
J. Kouassi
45+5'
Salih Dursun
45+1'
Samed Onur
45+8'
Resul Türkkalesi
46'
İ. Demir← M. Kahrıman
66'
M. Ricci← I. Drešević
66'
K. Frei← B. Kapacak
66'
E. Colley← J. Kouassi
71'
E. Colley↳ C. Kazim-Richards
75'
İ. Bağcı← V. Böyükgül
75'
Ç. Oğuz← R. Türkkalesi
75'
M. Gönen← A. Kahraman
78'
D. Biraschi← R. Baniya
82'
E. Mızrakcı← A. Uğur
84'
C. Kazim-Richards↳ E. Colley
85'
O. İnanç← Ş. Başaran

Statistics

FatihUşak
Overview
4Corners5
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1

Türkiye Kupası: Fatih Karagümrük 3–0 Uşak Spor

Fatih Karagümrük beat Uşak Spor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 21, 2022.

Goals: J. Kouassi (14'), E. Colley (71'), C. Kazim-Richards (84').

The match was played at Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu in İstanbul.