Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fatih Karagümrük vs Nevşehir Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nevşehir Belediyespor
Nevşehir Belediyespor
11/4/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundVefa Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük61%
×Draw22%
Nevşehir Belediyespor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatih Karagümrük
1.94
Nevşehir Belediyespor
0.94

Fatih Karagümrük creates 106% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.89
Nevşehir Belediyespor
0.67

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.21
Nevşehir Belediyespor
2.00

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par
Nevşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Nevşehir Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw
82%
Fatih Karagümrük or Nevşehir Belediyespor
78%
Draw or Nevşehir Belediyespor
39%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
36%
Nevşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
86%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
58%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
30%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
61%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
24%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
77%
Nevşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Nevşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Nevşehir Belediyespor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nevşehir Belediyespor attack 0.67 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more
61%
level
22%
Nevşehir Belediyespor scores more
18%

Fatih Karagümrük at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Nevşehir Belediyespor

Fatih Karagümrük and Nevşehir Belediyespor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Vefa Stadı in İstanbul.