Fatih Karagümrük vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Fatih Karagümrük45%
Iğdır FK30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fatih Karagümrük creates 27% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fatih Karagümrük ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches
Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.68 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51
Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Fatih Karagümrük at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesPlaying styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Denizlispor
Genclerbirligi
Hatayspor
Osmanlıspor
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Adana Demirspor
Altınordu
Ümraniyespor
Boluspor
Altay
İstanbulspor
Adanaspor
Giresunspor
Eskişehirspor
Balıkesirspor
Afjet Afyonspor
Elazığspor
Kardemir KarabuksporIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fatih Karagümrük host Iğdır FK on Sunday, 10 January 2027 at 17:00. The match is part of the 1. Lig 2018/2019 season.
Fatih Karagümrük face Iğdır FK (1. Lig)
1. Lig returns with Fatih Karagümrük hosting Iğdır FK. Match starts January 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Fatih Karagümrük host Iğdır FK at Ataturk Olimpiyat.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.