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Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Göztepe
Göztepe
12/3/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundVefa Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük38%
×Draw23%
Göztepe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatih Karagümrük
1.61
Göztepe
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.89
Göztepe
2.08

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.21
Göztepe
1.33

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw
61%
Fatih Karagümrük or Göztepe
77%
Draw or Göztepe
62%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
19%
Göztepe wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
80%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
48%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
22%
Göztepe 1+ goals
81%
Göztepe 2+ goals
49%
Göztepe 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
49%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Göztepe away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Göztepe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Göztepe attack 2.08 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more
38%
level
23%
Göztepe scores more
39%

Göztepe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe

Göztepe beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 3, 2019.

The match was played at Vefa Stadı in İstanbul.