Fatih Karagümrük 4–0 Bodrum FK: Result & Stats

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Bodrum FK

12/29/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük42%

×Draw23%

Bodrum FK35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchBodrum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.60

Fatih Karagümrük

1.75

Bodrum FK

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

1.89

creates per match

2.00

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.89

Bodrum FK

2.00

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.21

Bodrum FK

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Bodrum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

65%

Fatih Karagümrük or Bodrum FK

77%

Draw or Bodrum FK

58%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

22%

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

83%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

52%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

25%

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

80%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

47%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

54%

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Bodrum FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bodrum FK attack 2.00 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

42%

level

23%

Bodrum FK scores more

35%

Fatih Karagümrük at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff