Fatih Karagümrük 3–2 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Ankaragücü

D. Lamkel Zé 82'

Wesley 11', 4'

R. Cephas 84'

R. Saponara 64'

9/15/2024

1. Lig · Round 5Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük43%

×Draw26%

Ankaragücü31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.15

Fatih Karagümrük

1.42

Ankaragücü

1.15

Fatih Karagümrük creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

1.68

creates per match

1.26

1.03

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.68

Ankaragücü

1.26

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.03

Ankaragücü

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

69%

Fatih Karagümrük or Ankaragücü

74%

Draw or Ankaragücü

57%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

21%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

76%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

41%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

17%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

68%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

32%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

59%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.68 + Ankaragücü defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ankaragücü attack 1.26 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

43%

level

26%

Ankaragücü scores more

31%

Fatih Karagümrük at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Wesley

Fatih Karagümrük · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

Wesley↳ Ç. Kurukalıp

11'

Wesley↳ Ç. Kurukalıp

27'

R. Cephas← K. Varga

27'

O. Çelik← Diogo Coelho

27'

İ. Çokçalış← A. Uludağ

57'

R. Saponara← R. Bajić

62'

İsmail Çokçalış

64'

R. Saponara

65'

F. Paoletti← D. Johnson

65'

N. Dovedan← João Camacho

67'

69'

71'

74'

78'

82'

D. Lamkel Zé↳ N. Dovedan

83'

B. Demiroğlu← Wesley

83'

A. Sivri← D. Lamkel Zé

84'

R. Cephas↳ R. Dadashov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FatihAnkaragücü

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots13

1Corners7

21Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots13

6On Target4

5Off Target7

0Blocked2

8Inside Box11

3Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

366Total Passes409

265Accurate Passes301

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls12

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0