Fatih Karagümrük 4–0 Afjet Afyonspor

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Afjet Afyonspor

10/30/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük72%

×Draw15%

Afjet Afyonspor12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchAfjet Afyonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.82

1.10

Fatih Karagümrük

2.82

Afjet Afyonspor

1.10

Fatih Karagümrük creates 156% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

1.89

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.89

Afjet Afyonspor

1.00

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.21

Afjet Afyonspor

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Afjet Afyonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

88%

Fatih Karagümrük or Afjet Afyonspor

85%

Draw or Afjet Afyonspor

28%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

52%

Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

94%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

77%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

52%

Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals

67%

Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals

30%

Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

85%

Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Afjet Afyonspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.82

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.00 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

72%

level

15%

Afjet Afyonspor scores more

12%

Fatih Karagümrük at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff