Fath Casablanca 2–0 AS Salé: Result & Stats | Cup

Fath Casablanca

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AS Salé

2/9/2023

Cup · Round of 32Stade Ba Mohamed

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fath Casablanca74%

×Draw21%

AS Salé6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fath CasablancaExpected goals in this matchAS Salé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.29

Fath Casablanca

1.75

AS Salé

0.29

Fath Casablanca creates 503% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

0.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fath Casablanca

1.50

AS Salé

0.33

allows per match

Fath Casablanca

0.25

AS Salé

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fath Casablanca+0.00on par

AS Salé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fath Casablanca ↓

AS Salé →

0–013%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–023%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–020%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–012%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fath Casablanca or draw

94%

Fath Casablanca or AS Salé

79%

Draw or AS Salé

26%

Winning margin

Fath Casablanca wins by 2+

45%

AS Salé wins by 2+

Team goals

Fath Casablanca 1+ goals

83%

Fath Casablanca 2+ goals

52%

Fath Casablanca 3+ goals

25%

AS Salé 1+ goals

25%

AS Salé 2+ goals

AS Salé 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Fath Casablanca (draw refunded)

93%

AS Salé (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fath Casablanca at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

AS Salé away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fath Casablanca attack 1.50 + AS Salé defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

AS Salé attack 0.33 + Fath Casablanca defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Fath Casablanca scores more

74%

level

21%

AS Salé scores more

Fath Casablanca at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Fath Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff