Fassell 0–1 Shaita: Result & Stats

Fassell

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shaita

12/14/2024

LFA First Division · Round 3Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fassell53%

×Draw23%

Shaita24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FassellExpected goals in this matchShaita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.18

Fassell

1.86

Shaita

1.18

Fassell creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.65

creates per match

1.62

0.73

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Fassell

1.65

Shaita

1.62

allows per match

Fassell

0.73

Shaita

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fassell+0.00on par

Shaita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fassell ↓

Shaita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fassell or draw

76%

Fassell or Shaita

77%

Draw or Shaita

47%

Winning margin

Fassell wins by 2+

30%

Shaita wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fassell 1+ goals

84%

Fassell 2+ goals

55%

Fassell 3+ goals

28%

Shaita 1+ goals

69%

Shaita 2+ goals

33%

Shaita 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fassell (draw refunded)

69%

Shaita (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fassell at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Shaita away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fassell attack 1.65 + Shaita defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Shaita attack 1.62 + Fassell defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fassell scores more

53%

level

23%

Shaita scores more

24%

Fassell at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff