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Fassell vs Downtown — LFA First Division 2020

Fassell
Fassell
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Downtown
Downtown
3/26/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fassell54%
×Draw23%
Downtown23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fassell
1.79
Downtown
1.08

Fassell creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fassell
1.65
Downtown
1.43

allows per match

Fassell
0.73
Downtown
1.93

finishing

Fassell+0.00on par
Downtown+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fassell ↓

Downtown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fassell or draw
77%
Fassell or Downtown
77%
Draw or Downtown
46%

Winning margin

Fassell wins by 2+
30%
Downtown wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fassell 1+ goals
83%
Fassell 2+ goals
53%
Fassell 3+ goals
26%
Downtown 1+ goals
66%
Downtown 2+ goals
29%
Downtown 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fassell (draw refunded)
70%
Downtown (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fassell at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Downtown away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fassell attack 1.65 + Downtown defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.79

Downtown attack 1.43 + Fassell defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fassell scores more
54%
level
23%
Downtown scores more
23%

Fassell at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fassell vs Downtown

Downtown beat Fassell 1-0 in LFA First Division on March 26, 2026.