Fassell 2–1 Black Man Warrior: Result & Stats

Fassell

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Black Man Warrior

10/20/2024

LFA First Division · Round 5Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fassell53%

×Draw27%

Black Man Warrior20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FassellExpected goals in this matchBlack Man Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.79

Fassell

1.46

Black Man Warrior

0.79

Fassell creates 85% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

1.65

creates per match

0.85

0.73

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Fassell

1.65

Black Man Warrior

0.85

allows per match

Fassell

0.73

Black Man Warrior

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fassell+0.00on par

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fassell ↓

Black Man Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fassell or draw

80%

Fassell or Black Man Warrior

73%

Draw or Black Man Warrior

47%

Winning margin

Fassell wins by 2+

27%

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fassell 1+ goals

77%

Fassell 2+ goals

43%

Fassell 3+ goals

18%

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals

55%

Black Man Warrior 2+ goals

19%

Black Man Warrior 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fassell (draw refunded)

72%

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fassell at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fassell attack 1.65 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + Fassell defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fassell scores more

53%

level

27%

Black Man Warrior scores more

20%

Fassell at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff