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Fassell vs BEA Mountain — LFA First Division 2020

Fassell
Fassell
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BEA Mountain
BEA Mountain
3/1/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fassell39%
×Draw26%
BEA Mountain35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fassell
1.38
BEA Mountain
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 74 away

creates per match

Fassell
1.65
BEA Mountain
1.84

allows per match

Fassell
0.73
BEA Mountain
1.11

finishing

Fassell+0.00on par
BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fassell ↓

BEA Mountain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fassell or draw
65%
Fassell or BEA Mountain
74%
Draw or BEA Mountain
61%

Winning margin

Fassell wins by 2+
18%
BEA Mountain wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fassell 1+ goals
75%
Fassell 2+ goals
40%
Fassell 3+ goals
16%
BEA Mountain 1+ goals
72%
BEA Mountain 2+ goals
37%
BEA Mountain 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fassell (draw refunded)
53%
BEA Mountain (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fassell at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

BEA Mountain away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fassell attack 1.65 + BEA Mountain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

BEA Mountain attack 1.84 + Fassell defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fassell scores more
39%
level
26%
BEA Mountain scores more
35%

Fassell at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Fassell 0–1 BEA Mountain

BEA Mountain beat Fassell 1-0 in LFA First Division on March 1, 2026.