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Fasil Ketema vs Welayta Dicha — Premier League 2019

Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
11/30/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Addis Abeba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Fasil Ketema42%
×Draw30%
Welayta Dicha29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fasil Ketema
1.18
Welayta Dicha
0.92

Fasil Ketema creates 28% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Fasil Ketema
1.28
Welayta Dicha
1.06

allows per match

Fasil Ketema
0.78
Welayta Dicha
1.07

finishing

Fasil Ketema+0.00on par
Welayta Dicha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fasil Ketema ↓

Welayta Dicha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fasil Ketema or draw
71%
Fasil Ketema or Welayta Dicha
70%
Draw or Welayta Dicha
58%

Winning margin

Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
18%
Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
69%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
33%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
12%
Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
60%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
23%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
59%
Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fasil Ketema at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 101 matches

Welayta Dicha away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fasil Ketema attack 1.28 + Welayta Dicha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Welayta Dicha attack 1.06 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fasil Ketema scores more
42%
level
30%
Welayta Dicha scores more
29%

Fasil Ketema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fasil Ketema vs Welayta Dicha

Fasil Ketema and Welayta Dicha drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Addis Abeba Stadium in Addis Abeba.